Theories of Change

In Brief

On this page we discuss theories of change which are the theories we have about how to bring about changes we desire. Different diets are different theories of change: some people advocate a low-fat diet to lose weight, others a low-carb, or a paleo, or intermittent fasting. Peacebuilders and democracy builders also have different theories of change, that then cause them to pursue different strategies to resolve conflicts or break down hyper-polarization or other threats to democracy. In highly intractable societal level conflicts, we argue that many theories of change apply to different aspects of the problem, requiring people in all the 40+ roles we have identified to carry out their particular theories to improve their particular parts of the problem.

 

Theories of change are the theories we have about how to bring about changes we desire. When I was teaching, I found this easiest to explain to my students in terms of dieting. Some people belief dieting is simple: eat fewer calories than you need, exercise more. The pounds will come off.  Other people say they won't, your metabolism will just adjust to needing less.  They advocate a paleo diet, or a low fat diet, or a low carb diet, etc. All of these are diet "theories of change." 

Conflict resolvers and peacebuilders also have theories of change: some may think you need to change the behavior of top-level leaders, other think working at the grassroots level is more effective. Some seek to change structures; others seek to change people. Some pursue cognitive change such as reframing, emotional change, or "emotional literacy."  Others seek to change people's behavior through modeling, social learning, or changing motivations. Still others seek to change relationships through dialogues, or reconciliation programs of pain acknowledgement, mourning, apology, and forgiveness .

Some of these approaches are appropriate in some circumstances, while others are not. Sticking firmly to "hammer's law," (if you are a hammer, all the world's a nail) is not helpful. But it is also not helpful to assume that any one approach is sufficient to bring about lasting peace or a strong democracy on its own.  That is the very notion of massively parallel democracy or peacebuilding.  It takes many different people, acting on many different theories of change, to bring about what Robert Ricigliano terms "peace [or democracy] write large"

Even though one theory alone is likely not enough, theories of change are important.  If you don't have a theory — if you just go out into any circumstance and do whatever it is you do — because it is what you know how to do, or you can earn money by doing it, the chance of it's working is low. Theories of change are part of a four part sequence necessary for successful change.  First is a thorough conflict assessment, so you know what is going on, and what the problems are. Second is formulating one more usually several theories of change, which suggest ways of intervening in a situation in order to bring about desired change.  Third is implementation — doing whatever it is you theory suggests you should do.  And fourth is monitoring, both as you are implementing, and afterwards, to see if things worked as you expected them to work, and if not, why not and what could be done differently. Different sections of the guide relate to the other three parts (assessment, implementation, and monitoring). The links below explain more about theories of change.